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<title>Riverside Info Tag: tif</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</link>
<description>Discussion Forum for Riverside Illinois</description>
<language>en</language>
<pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:48:40 +0000</pubDate>

<item>
<title>VinnieMacD on "University Study says Riverside Needs TIF"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/university-study-says-riverside-needs-tif#post-13909</link>
<pubDate>Fri, 25 Feb 2011 06:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>VinnieMacD</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">13909@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Just recently released, Northern Illinois University completed its study on Riversides Central Business District, in an effort to revitalize the downtown.  Its suggestion- Tax Incremented District dollars, or TIF.&#60;br /&#62;
Had this been implemented a few years ago, what would our downtown look like now?
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>rwhite on "CBD, What businesses do we need/want?"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/cbd-what-businesses-do-we-needwant/page/7#post-12464</link>
<pubDate>Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:04:03 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>rwhite</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">12464@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;I know that this is an older thread, but I have a dream that keeps popping into my head that seemed to fit with this thread best.  I think that Riverside would be an *amazing* location for a little independent art-house theatre (2-3 screens).&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I've personally always thought that the LaGrange theatre is totally missing out by not becoming an art-house theatre rather than the second-run theatre they are, as they are the perfect size and location for such a venue.  In two other places I've lived, I was in a smaller neighborhood near a larger metropolitan city, and both locations were famous for having art-house cinemas, which were big draws from the surrounding areas as well as the from the city. These cinemas were the anchor for the many other businesses (restaurants, galleries, cafes, etc.) that flourished in these small(ish), quaint business districts.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;These art house cinemas, of course, screened indie and art house films that were often difficult to find anywhere else (though not totally obscure films -- I saw Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, and many other very famous indie &#34;crossover&#34; films at one of these cinemas, for example).  One of these theatres used to screen classic films a couple of weekends a month as well, films that many people otherwise wouldn't ever get to see on the big screen. One of these theatres often had programming for kids/families during the day, sometimes screening old (and new!) animated classics that would bring adults out too (I went to see a screening of Bambi with friends once, as well as seeing a few of the Miyazaki animated films, for example.). &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Here are links to the cinemas I used to frequent in my old 'hoods...  gosh, do I miss these theatres...&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;&#60;a href=&#34;http://www.drexel.net/&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://www.drexel.net/&#60;/a&#62;&#60;br /&#62;
&#60;a href=&#34;http://www.princesscinemas.com/&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://www.princesscinemas.com/&#60;/a&#62;&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Of course, I have no idea *where* something like this would fit in the CBD, but from my experience, I think it would be a huge draw.  Currently, people generally have to go into the city to the Music Box, Facets, the Siskel film center, etc., to see anything but the big blockbusters.
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>ChrisHajer on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11100</link>
<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:19:18 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>ChrisHajer</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11100@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Interesting news item from the Suburban Life:&#60;br /&#62;
&#60;a href=&#34;http://is.gd/4g0XV&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://is.gd/4g0XV&#60;/a&#62;&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;&#34;Three more departments met with the Berwyn Budget Committee last week, with all three missing the 10 percent operating budget reduction requested by the panel.&#34;&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;The shortfall in Riverside is about the same; 10% ($890K of $8M):&#60;br /&#62;
&#60;a href=&#34;http://is.gd/4g1fc&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://is.gd/4g1fc&#60;/a&#62;&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;The Berwyn annual budget is closer to $45M though:&#60;br /&#62;
&#60;a href=&#34;http://www.berwyn-il.gov/pdf/Clerk/Proposed_2009_Budget-FINAL.pdf&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://www.berwyn-il.gov/pdf/Clerk/Proposed_2009_Budget-FINAL.pdf&#60;/a&#62;
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>mrt on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11099</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>mrt</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11099@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;this just in , from London...&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;blockquote&#62;&#60;p&#62;&#60;strong&#62;Recession-hit govt to sell off state assets: PM&#60;/strong&#62;&#60;br /&#62;
         Buzz up!10 votes Send&#60;br /&#62;
Email IM .Share&#60;br /&#62;
Delicious Digg Facebook Fark Newsvine Reddit StumbleUpon Technorati Twitter Yahoo! Bookmarks .Print .. AFP/Pool/File – The government will sell off a raft of state assets to help reduce its debt, Prime Minister Gordon Brown, … .2 hrs 25 mins ago&#60;br /&#62;
LONDON (AFP) – The British government will sell off a raft of state assets to help reduce its debt, Prime Minister Gordon Brown was to announce Monday.&#60;br /&#62;
...&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;/blockquote&#62;
&#60;p&#62;&#60;a href=&#34;http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091012/wl_uk_afp/britainpoliticseconomy_20091012000443&#34; rel=&#34;nofollow&#34;&#62;http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091012/wl_uk_afp/britainpoliticseconomy_20091012000443&#60;/a&#62;
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>mr on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11096</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:02:28 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>mr</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11096@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Just remember, property taxes get deducted from the federal income tax, but things like vehicle stickers don't.
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>spatny on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11095</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:23:27 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>spatny</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11095@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Well obviously Berwyn has a substantial and established commercial district paying taxes, and of course it is a much larger population.  Probably we will have to look at some &#34;combined services&#34; ideas like fire, police, rec, etc.  going forward, and while that has been explored I don't know how seriously.  There has been a lot of tax income going into the schools here, and that's good, but when the surplus levels climb as they have for District 96 and the Village - which I think gets just 16% of the tax bill has to go begging, it is out of whack to say the least.  One might think that Dist. 96  could step up and &#34;adopt&#34; some of the burden like the crossing guards, perhaps pay for one police officer to admin that, maybe chip in on some of the hardware that is required like another ambulance or a squad car, or maybe the $106K (or more) that goes into the Rec department support.  The kids are the biggest users of that program, I think, so since the residents paid the money in it wouldn't be a big stretch to think that if they have a surplus of $(mil plus (climbing toward $12mil I heard projected) it hardly makes sense to deny using that money sitting in surplus toward those ends.  Of course, there are probably myriad reasons for not doing that, but I think when they are paying upwards of $300K for a leader it might be worthwhile to ask anyway.  If Dist. 96 picked up $500K of these costs a year for three years their projected surplus would still be climbing and it would be a great help to the Village.  Any legal eagles no any way to do that?  If we &#34;follow the money&#34; that is where it is at - not in filling a couple of our storefronts with businesses that may or may not pay sales tax.  I'm not advocating taking something away, just reallocating it while our traditional revenue streams are deteriorating.   Just an idea...
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>CuriousResident on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11094</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:11:29 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>CuriousResident</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11094@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;I've read some form of notion of &#34;we need to get used to the new norm of what the village will be able to offer/support&#34;.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;It makes sense relative to our current economy, but I'm struggling to recall a &#34;shiny full service village&#34; during supposed &#34;the glory days&#34; that we just lived through. I'm not ragging on what we have had, just saying it was not at a level you'd hold up in comparison against similar demographic villages.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;From a big picture perspective, we likely need to review not just &#34;level of service&#34; but our whole approach to our village government. I wonder if anyone has looked at villages that are &#34;doing well&#34; and fit our business model? &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I have absolutely no clue about Berwyn's model, but it is interesting to look over (at a village that has a step lower than Riverside on the image/socio-economic rank) and see the lower property prices(ergo lower property tax) and yet they seem to be able to have better than average parks, fire, police and their business district is evolving. All in ways that we wish we were doing... How does that balance sheet work?
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>spatny on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/4#post-11093</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 13:52:47 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>spatny</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11093@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Tony -I hope you are right and I am wrong about where the national economic trends are going, because we will all be better off with your rosier predictions than mine.  But I see nothing to back that up, so I'll have to stick with mine.  If you are right than I will buy you a beer or two at the Chew because I should be able to afford it.  Of course,  if I am right I want you to do the same, because I'll need it!&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I think we will all need to stop thinking we can have things just because we want them - sort of the credit-card mentality.  When it comes to Village services under the kind of conditions we have now, let alone the one that I think we will have next year, I think it does a disservice to pontificate about what we owe to our heritage or legacy or future generations...  What we need to do is get through the heavy weather... and I think that's what the Board is trying to do - at least some of them.
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>TonyM on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/3#post-11092</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 13:24:42 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>TonyM</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11092@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Don - I do agree with you that we will probably never return to the &#34;good old&#34; days and that next year will be a difficult one, but I do not share your dire predictions. I do share in your disappointment with the Board's lack of action at yesterday's meeting. Knowing that we are on what I hope to be a new normalized trend, the residents of this Village need to make adjustments to what we expect from our local government in terms of the levels and quality of services. If the expectation is that nothing should be changed, then we should expect to have to pay more - and yes I would be willing to pay for it.
&#60;/p&#62;</description>
</item>
<item>
<title>spatny on "RCA Determines Our Village Needs More Capital Funds"</title>
<link>http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/topic/rca-determines-our-village-needs-more-capital-funds/page/3#post-11091</link>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:41:41 +0000</pubDate>
<dc:creator>spatny</dc:creator>
<guid isPermaLink="false">11091@http://www.riversideinfo.org/forum/</guid>
<description>&#60;p&#62;Tony, I wasn't advocating that, but if it were passed I'd kick in $250. for us no questions asked.  Would you?  I was just trying to illustrate the number we are short - roughly $10 a month for every man, woman and child.  I was hoping the Board would remove every single item form the department lists - cops, forester, ambulance, squad cars - everything, whatever it took to come up to the mandated balanced budget we can swing based on the reality of current revenue projections - AND THEN bring up every item and ask, do we want to spend reserves for this, for this, for that.  I thought it would be a little clearer.  &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;The big problem is, as mothers beside myself mentioned, that 2010 will in all probability be worse.  I know you think otherwise, and I hope you are right, but unless you can demo something I don't know I'll have to stick to the idea that we are just looking at the dead-cat bounce and the next downturn will last a lot longer.  I recently looked at an article by a Bull on Seeking Alpha who was trying to use the Case-Schiller 20 bounce to claim that things had turned around.  I append some of the comments the article received: (FYI: the numbers at the end are the up or down thumbs from other readers - as, 12 up, 3 down for the first one.)&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;&#34;How about the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit in November? This has to be in play to some extent... and what about all the Alt-A mortgage resets in 2010-11? or the shadow inventory thats been disappearing into the banks black hole? ...or the fact that unemployment is rising? Since when do home prices increase when unemployment is skyrocketing and foreclosures are increasing? Something is not right...... Sep 29 12:28 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+12-3&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;OptimizedPrime:  Comments (74)&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;There's nothing &#34;normal&#34; about what is going on right now. The US government is absolutely buying houses for EVERYBODY by giving them their down payment ($8k credit) an backing virtually every home loan.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Housing Numbers - Government Help = Zero&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;If you can make the case that the US government can be the defacto lender for all housing here in the US, that the the preponderance of these loans will bad, and that fiscal deficits do not matter, and we can sustain what we're doing here forever, then by all means the Bulls will have their day.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;If you believe the laws of physics still apply here on Earth then there are basically two future scenarios for the USA:&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;1. The Government slowly (and soon, before the dollar crumbles) pulls the plug on all of the stimulus and we experience slight negative growth dampened activity for the next ten years or so. Our country operates basically like Japan and to some extent Germany have for the last decade.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;2. The Government keeps it petal-to-the-metal and until we just crash and burn. The dollar crumbles, inflation goes berserk, interest rates go to 25% and we default on our debt (or just inflate it away, which is the same thing). Then a screwed China goes nuclear (literally) and our boys go attack North Korea and Iran and go defend Taiwan, Columbia and Japan and our government gets us into WWIII since that was the only way out of the last mess like this.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;God help us if our scenario is NOT #1.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;OP Sep 29 01:03 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+12-5&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;HardwoodFlo...:  Comments (462)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
OP- you are partially correct:&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I have to say that having the Government in the system is causing problems. Here's why: with the Government safety net banks don't have to lend to make money.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;The banks are having an absolute hay-day. They have do downside risk (b/c they are selling the FHA loans to the government) with limited downside risk. This is so appealing and they are making so much money (getting money at effectively zero) that there is no need to be competitive and seek out business opportunity (e.g. JUMBOs) or support small business loans.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;This is what one might call &#34;unintended consequence&#34; of government safety net in the banking system- it's not lending itself to more lending but, rather, less. Sep 29 01:09 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+8-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;HardwoodFlo...:  Comments (462)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
Now, I think we are far from over in this mess (mostly b/c of dumb-ass regaional bankers) but the good news about the report is that prices were up in 18 of the cities and only down in two (woudl have been nice to see this). Still we need some JUMBOs and a return of home equities (not to be used for trips to Vegas or boob jobs) to get my little business going. Sep 29 01:12 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+4-6&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;debtacid:  Comments (200) • StockTalk (3)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
This is all we get for 70 trillion dollars of fed pump? We should all be living in castles like the Rothschilds Sep 29 01:13 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+3-1&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;enigmaman:  Comments (390)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
What happens when you factor in the end of the first time home buyer credit, add then add 6 million foreclosures that Realty Trac says have yet to hit the market, what affect will that have on the market. Most sales are under 100,000 and are subsidized first time home buyers and investors, not a screaming endorsement for a healthy recovery. Also the 18% increase you point to sounds positive and looks good in comparison to the others but the other reports have no correlation to this report at all. Comparing apples to oranges, devil in the details. Like when you have a stock that was worth 20.00 drops to 1.00, then goes up .50 in a month and the headlines read &#34; Stock up 50%, biggest monthly move in its history&#34; that sounds great to, but is it really! Sep 29 01:18 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+10-1&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;dondon:  Comments (61)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
Many of the homes that are hitting the foreclosure market are high end homes. These higher priced homes are what are pushing the average home prices up. The inventory supply of homes is far outstripping the demand and prices will continue to fall. Sep 29 01:26 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+5-3&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Wildebeest:  Comments (37) • Instablog (6) • StockTalk (1)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow•Wildebeests&#60;br /&#62;
&#34;not getting worse&#34; is different to &#34;recovery&#34;. If being bearish means you don't believe a genuine recovery is going to happen any time soon, then there doesn't seem to be anything in the numbers to change that view. Sep 29 01:32 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+60&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Russ Wetherill:  Comments (96)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
Typical fallacious reasoning from a perma-bull... If not A then B. If the uptick in home prices is not due to seasonality then it must be due to a housing price bottom and emerging recovery. &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;To support his presumptions the author completely ignores contributing causes C, D, E, and F (artificially low interest rates, $8k buyer credit, change in sales mix (distressed/non-distre... foreclosure moratoriums, etc.) as noted by above commentators.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;These types of specious arguments may fly with the general public but they certainly don't pass muster here. Sep 29 01:38 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+10-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Joanito:  Comments (16) • StockTalk (1)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
The cat is dead. Cat, meet concrete. The cat bounces. The dead cat is a metaphor for something. See if you can guess what the dead cat symbolizes. Sep 29 02:30 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+3-3&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Anthony B:  Comments (135) • StockTalk (5)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow•Cards To Options&#60;br /&#62;
Even after the November tax credit expires, the trend will be in place for a recovery. Thanks for posting a bullish take on an indicator on SA. I'm hoping for at least 10 thumbs down on this, as proof of how predominantly bearish SA users remain. Sep 29 02:36 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+4-7&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Devon Shire:  Comments (67) • Instablog (5)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Tom,&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Didn't you call the bottom to the banking problems in the late fall of 2007 at the Value Investing Conference ? Sep 29 02:40 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+40&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Mr. Ed, Jr.:  Comments (428)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
&#34;For months, skeptics have dismissed recent price strength as merely the product of the calendar. Now, it seems, they’ll have to dismiss it all some other way.&#34;&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;When you intentionally disregard the ending of the tax credit (sale must be closed prior to the November deadline), and which can be used as the downpayment with FHA financing, AND which polling shows at least 15% of ALL buyers (not just those who are eligible) said they would not have bought now without the credit.....well, I think we know who and what to dismiss. Sep 29 02:42 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+8-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Mudduckk:  Comments (40) • Instablog (1) • StockTalk (2)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
How does a post like this get published. This is all sizzle no steak.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I have a leading indicator on this one. I got a pal in Charlotte NC home to BAC. When he unloads his manse is when the market clears bottom. Till then the top end and the middle end of the R/E market still needs a hair cut. I'm ceratain like most top end sellers stuck upside down and strapped to their land, if he'd just take another 10-15% off the ask, he'd be free and clear. But he can't w/o getting wiped out...so he waits. We wait. Extend. Pretend. Till the forclosure gets served. Till the auction volume pics up and the news stories abound with the woes of the upper middle class who used to be rich last sunday, now out on their arse.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;That will be the day R/E hits a bottom. Sep 29 02:46 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+4-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;six:  Comments (75) • StockTalk (1)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
If it smells like poop and steams like poop it must a pile and that is what this article is... a big pile of poop. Just don't step in it. Residental housing sucks and will suck for probably another 10 years. The Gov is paying people $8k to buy a house and still sales fell in August. A month over month price national price increase is NOTHING but the slight uptick in the sale of low priced properties. These are a much smaller part of the pie that all residental mortages represent than the mid and jumbo market does. This is market is getting crushed now and will in turn crush the banks in the next year. Less people working, those that are working are making less, and the money they are making the are saving and NOT spending, while avoiding debt at all costs... Yeah I see a housing boom right around the corner. Get ready, the fat lady ain't sung yet.... Sep 29 03:14 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+4-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;noblepaladin:  Comments (12)&#60;br /&#62;
Follow&#60;br /&#62;
Government pushing down interest rate, Government giving tax credit, Government forcing banks to delay foreclosures, and the fact that higher quality prime homes (rather than cheap subprime, below $200k homes) are being dumped on the market because of unemployment is the reason why average home prices are going up.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;If the banks continue their foreclosures or if interest rates rise, the housing market will come crashing down in flames again. We have too many houses, the problem will solve itself over time, when population grows and more households are created. I don't think we had substantial population growth and household formation in the last few months, unless a lot of 13 year olds decided to create families. Sep 29 03:29 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+60&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;djackson:  Comments (60) • Instablog (8)&#60;br /&#62;
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You are misreading the most significant part of the seasonality argument, the part that is not traditional: How the relationship between the percent of homes sold that are discretionary sales vs. foreclosures changes over the calendar year. Discretionary sales are highest during months like June, July, and August while foreclosure sales do not exhibit a seasonal pattern. Discretionary homes, all else equal, will be sold for a higher price than foreclosures. For example, assume a discretionary home sells for 300K and a foreclosure for 150k. The mix is 70/30 in summer and 30/70 is winter. The summer price works out to 255k on average and the winter price to 205K. So as winter changes to spring changes to summer, you should expect in this environment to see prices increase seasonally. Now we will be going from summer to fall to winter. If you are really sure your right, I bet there are some long/short combinations you could invest in via the Case Shiller futures contracts to express your strong opinion. Sep 29 03:31 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+80&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;bobomite:  Comments (71)&#60;br /&#62;
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Here is one rough way to look at it:&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Median house price: ~$200k&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;$8K credit to 1st time buyers = 4% &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I don't see how this is &#34;hashing the bears' argument.&#34; This is just more artificial propping of house prices.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Offer $16k credits and watch even more housing growth happen!&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;;) Sep 29 03:39 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+30&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Stone Fox C...:  Comments (592) • Instablog (105) • StockTalk (92)&#60;br /&#62;
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Seriously doubt first time home buyers are propping up housing prices. They only impact the low end. Surely it has more to do with low interest rates making houses very affordable. Sep 29 05:57 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+4-2&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Mr. Ed, Jr.:  Comments (428)&#60;br /&#62;
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It would certainly be correct that first time buyers are generally buying in the lower end of the housing market. However, they buy from people who then move up the housing ladder (Even in this economy, one would hope sellers are not moving down the ladder from the lower end), which creates the all-important ripple effect.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;One of the reasons housing has been so stagnant is that, with so many foreclosures, sales do not create that needed ripple effect, as there is just an empty house being sold by the bank. Foreclosure supply has done much damage to the &#34;ripple&#34;.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;First time buyers typically are a little more than 1/3 of the market, I believe, but I do not have more precise numbers available for this summer.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;On Sep 29 05:57 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;&#38;gt; Seriously doubt first time home buyers are propping up housing prices.&#60;br /&#62;
&#38;gt; They only impact the low end. Surely it has more to do with low interest&#60;br /&#62;
&#38;gt; rates making houses very affordable. Sep 29 08:06 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+50&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;hoover:  Comments (78) • StockTalk (1)&#60;br /&#62;
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I'm skeptical whether we've reached a point of stabilization in housing prices. But, I do believe there is more inherent value in housing than the market is currently indicating. Housing is down to the level it is today only because people can't pay their mortages. Stocks, by contrast, are overpriced because buyers have lost the sense that stocks have to eventually produce real net returns, like profits and dividends, rather than phoney accounting entries, more debt, and glowing reports by paid cheer leaders. On Main Street things look dismal, which is probably the most accurate reading of the real economy. Just some thoughts. Sep 29 09:50 PM&#124;Link&#124;Reply+10&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Moon Kil Woong:  Comments (2369) • Instablog (5)&#60;br /&#62;
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I like most people would agree the steepest part of the falloff this time around is behind us. That was known since the beginning of the year. Only because of the steepness of the falloff does the graph presented look compelling. By no means is the housing market healthy. In fact it is dependent on banks getting zirp rates so they can float long term rates with huge spreads then dump them off to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac that buys 90% because there is no other secondary market for lack of a plain vanilla loan anyone can understand. And then these government zombies dump the toxic stuff on the taxpayers.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Then you have the FHA that just looses money and the banks who lose money even though they are making huge spreads and taking no risk while hoarding money and giving it to the Federal Reserve who pays them interest derived from thin air. &#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;Then the Federal Government supports it all by deflating the dollar and basically playing ajustable rate mortgage with the whole US by issuing 1-10 year bonds to avoid paying a decent rate on their borrowings using a 20-30 year Treasury bond which would prove quickly that deficit spending is unsustainable and is leading to normalized interest rates that will floor the economy similar to the Great Depression.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;In fact if you take your modified case shiller and plug in the dollar deflation caused by this in the last year you will find the little uptick you have at the end actually is no uptick at all. The curve is still falling away relative to other fiat currencies. Don't expect foreigners to come in and buy up real estate. They already did that and got burned on the bonds and the derivatives linked to them and in their eyes there is no recovery at all in the US real estate market. Just a big fat devaluation illusion of stability.&#60;/p&#62;
&#60;p&#62;I think the cheerleaders won't look so good after the Bowl Games...  (but then they never did.)
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