Instant analysis/projections on housing numbers from Reuters...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67N3DX20100824
And ten days ago from Roubini...
http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-2010-8
Check the video.
Riverside Info » About Riverside
Forewarned is forearmed...
(60 posts)-
Posted Tuesday Aug 24, 2010 23:10 #
-
And today...
From the Landmark - revenues falling for the village predict shortfall...
http://www.rblandmark.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=6468&TM=41152.57
Also:
--------------------
News Alert: New home sales drop in July to slowest pace on record
10:09 AM EDT Wednesday, August 25, 2010
--------------------The Commerce Department says new home sales fell 12.4 percent in July from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 276,000, the slowest on record dating to 1963.
The numbers are the latest sign that the economic recovery is fading.
For more information, visit washingtonpost.com:
http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/1BAF0O/WLLM27/VTNWL3/IHSFFW/CR8PP/B7/tAs a Village, we need to live frugally. As more residents feel the pressure. and foreclosures grow, we need to stay within our budget, at the least. To me, residential Real Estate looks to drop another 8-10% before it hits bottom, and the inventory could last until 2014-15 with this level of demand. Not a pretty picture.
Posted Wednesday Aug 25, 2010 10:28 # -
Lecture by Roubini...
http://fora.tv/2010/05/13/Nouriel_Roubini_A_Crash_Course_in_the_Future_of_Finance
If you haven't read his book...
Posted Wednesday Aug 25, 2010 13:13 # -
Q 3 growth "well below 1%": Roubini
Posted Wednesday Aug 25, 2010 22:53 # -
Roubini: "Fed is running out of bullets."
A big bump in the road? Maybe we should approach it like this....
Don't forget Yip Harburg and Brother Al:
So what do you think - more spending now or less? Where do you stand and why?
Posted Friday Aug 27, 2010 15:50 # -
I guess this comes down to the old saw - "Plan your work and work your plan."
Nouriel on Bloomberg today:
Posted Friday Aug 27, 2010 18:01 # -
Roubini says 800 small and medium banks are in trouble, and half will fail...
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/Nouriel-roubini-dr-doom-prediction-banks-fail/19620023/
Posted Friday Sep 3, 2010 14:35 # -
And there you have it...
"Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany’s IFO Institute, said the US would have to purge its debt excesses the hard way.
“The bitter truth is that there is no way out of this with monetary and fiscal policy. They will just have to see their living standards go down. I see a decade of difficulties for the US,” he said.Dr Sinn said the US the market for mortgage securities (CDOs) had collapsed from $1.9 trillion in 2006 to just $50bn last year, leaving the US property market reliant on federal agencies.
“The world is simply not willing to buy these dubious financial products again. Germany is leaving, China is no longer there, and Japan is pulling away. The US system of mortgage finance is on government life support and that cannot drive a sustainable upswing,” he said.
Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson said the US has exhausted fiscal stimulus given warnings from the Congressional Budget Office that interest payments as a share of tax revenues will reach 20pc by 2020 and 36pc by 2030 without drastic retrenchment.
“The fiscal crisis seems to be out of control. The 'big crossover’ is approaching when the US spends more on debt service costs than on security, and historically that is the tipping point for any global power,” he said.Mr Ferguson said the “Chimerica” marriage of recent years is on the rocks. China is no longer willing to fund the US Treasury bond market, cutting its share of holdings from 13pc to 10pc of the total debt stock.
While China must find ways to recycle its trade surplus and hold down the yuan, it is doing this by stockpiling commodities, buying hard assets around the world, or rotating into Asian bonds.Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.
Next time somebody tells you you can fight wars and cut taxes at the same time you'll know what to tell them.
Posted Monday Sep 6, 2010 11:07 # -
Calculated risk...
"Calculated Risk maintains an unofficial problem bank list compiled from publicly available records. The latest list contains 844 names with a total of $412 billion in assets. The FDIC announced this week that they have (as of June 30) an official count of problem institutions at 829 with assets of $403 billion. The FDIC just releases a count quarterly, but no names.
The Calculated Risk list has tracked the FDIC count reasonably well over the past year (click to enlarge images):
The trend line tightly matches the data since last August, with a slope of +33 banks/month. Although no curve has been drawn for the FDIC data points, it is easy to see that there possibly is a slight concave curvature (downward) to that data. One might infer that the rate of problem bank counting by the FDIC might be slowing ever so slightly. Such a slowing of problem bank creation is not evident in the Calculated Risk data.
There is a clear indication that more smaller banks are coming onto the problem bank list than are leaving. Banks leave either by resolution of deficiency or failure, overwhelmingly the latter in the past three years. On August 7, 2009 there were 389 banks with assets totaling $276 billion on the unofficial problem bank list. Thirteen months later, the number of banks is 2.2 times larger, but the total of assets is only 1.5 times as large. The average assets per problem list bank in August 2009 was $720 million; now the number is $490 million per bank.
So far in this crisis, the FDIC has closed 286 banks. At the current rate of closures, another 80 may be closed by the end of the year and the problem bank list may reach 1,000. That would put over 1,360 banks in trouble or already closed at the end of 2010. That is getting closer to the number of troubled banks estimated at close to 1,900 by banking analyst Chris Whalen over a year ago, but is still far short of the nearly 3,000 troubled banks estimated by Elizabeth Warren's Congressional Oversight Panel in February this year.
If the analysis done by the references given is accurate, the 286 banks closed thus far in this crisis is not only far short of the total failures to be expected. The number 286 is probably far short of half of the bank failures we will see."
The above is from Seeking Alpha.
Posted Monday Sep 6, 2010 22:59 # -
Saw this on Paul Krugman's blog:
He’s your guy
When stocks are high,
But beware when they start to descend.It’s then that those louses
Go back to their spouses.
Diamonds are a girl’s best friend.It seems divorce and infidelity drops during hard times. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow some good. The Marilyn number with the pink dress is on youtube.com.
Posted Tuesday Sep 7, 2010 11:54 #
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