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Leading, trailing indicators and the Dead Cat Bounce...

(18 posts)
  1. spatny
    Member

    Sure, all those points are valid, at least to some extent. But if you drive down Nuttall, for example, you now see several large homes with "For Rent" signs on them - something I can't ever remember seeing. Everybody that can afford it will look for the bottom of the market to purchase, and we aren't there yet. So it is a real juggling act to spend on what is absolutely necessary vis-a-vis what we might, in and upward cycle, like to have. If it was just 2010 that is likely to be tough than the course that has been charted seems appropriate - but I think a meaningful recovery may be considerably further out. Home sales will slide again when/if the subsidy ends, just as car sales have. Unemployment, always a lagging indicator, will increase before it gets better, and I see no reason to think it can climb as required to get back to something acceptable. That means fewer discretionary dollars to spend over the next few years which will hurt restaurants, etc. So I think and have opposed the purchase of the Burlington properties, which no one was fighting over, when we did. Probably, we should not spend on Centennial NOW unless the bid is very low, as it will likely be lower when the stimulus money dries up and construction firms are hungrier. Surely we must look at ways to combine services with neighboring towns which would mean less Chiefs but maybe more indians on the payroll. Absolutely we need to do something about the taxes already granted that are piling up huge deficits in Dist. 96 while the village services starve for revenue. I yhink the future calls for streamlining what we provide and how it is delivered.

    Posted Saturday Oct 17, 2009 15:32 #
  2. PAR4
    Member

    I agree to a large extent about pooling of services. The problem is the sentiment of a large portion of our town that we don't need/want 'the others'. I have witnessed it first hand way too many times, and there is no doubt 'they' know how some of our citizens feel. If they need us, there may be a deal, but right now, we aren't in the drivers seat.
    On the 'for rent' signs...definitely troublesome...but again, who is calling the bottom? If we don't have an attractive village to draw buyers, we lose them. As an example, if we had spent less time arguing about the height of the VC and built it 2 years earlier, it would probably be full right now. You play the hand you are dealt. Are we going to fold or see what comes up on the flop?

    Posted Saturday Oct 17, 2009 21:15 #
  3. spatny
    Member

    I disagree. If we had developed a realistic building code and enforced it without granting variances we would have had a smaller, more attractive building set back from Longcommon with a nice place for a cafe/bistro and al fresco dining directly across from the water tower. And we could have had more attractive units that might have sold for more reasonable prices. It sems to me that people are attracted to Riverside as a nice, quiet place to live with parks, trees, good schools, a friendly place to walk and recreate, so why attempt to do what every other suburb does and pile "estate condos" into the downtown and attempt to lure traffic in to patronize small businesses that pay almost no sales tax to the Village. So we see things very differently - but I doubt if ANYONE moved in here because they wanted lots of condos and a "vibrant" CBD. More likely, they chose it for the residential district ambiance and the feeling it was small, safe, perhaps exclusive to some extent, and more people friendly in layout than, say, Naperville. Obviously, people come here and sign up to pay the freight because they think it is nice AS IT IS and like the ambiance AS IT IS. A smaller number of residents may want to change it to meet their criteria.

    Posted Saturday Oct 17, 2009 22:23 #
  4. anonymous
    Member

    Yeah, those For Rent signs are troubling. Those homes have been for sale for a long time. All the foreclosed homes are disturbing, too. Which one will be next? Who will learn that they don’t have a job next? It could be any one of us. It’s a crap shoot.

    Life as we knew it is over. We are going to have to pool our resources and our services, such as the recreation department. We should have been doing it all along. Why haven’t we? Power?

    Our taxes are too high—between District 96 and what will show up on our tax bill for RB. The teachers of D96 are due a new contract this year. Will the school board have the strength and courage to tell them no? The teachers are organized and smell weakness. They make a nice living. The next school board meeting is Tuesday at Hollywood School.

    No one knows when and how the economy will turn around. If I were looking to take advantage of the attractive home prices, would I look in Riverside, with its very high taxes and non-existent tax base? Or would I look at a town with a even a small tax base? Yes, even $50 or $70 per month is a lot—month after month---how secure is my job? These days, the only job security is in the public sector---teachers, for example, with their tenure. Spatny is right on this one.

    Posted Saturday Oct 17, 2009 23:52 #
  5. spatny
    Member

    Here's an article from the Financial Times today about the "book war"going on between Amazon and Walmart. (I post the link because the FT specifically asks you not to cut and post their articles.) This is exactly the reason why small retailers have no chance anymore with being successful in businesses like this. (By "successful", I mean making a good profit/living." Everything is being pushed to the lowest price, cost, wage - American workers on the shop floor must now compete with workers living in projects in China or worse. Local retailers now must compete against giants like Amazon or Walmart not only at superstores, but online in their own homes. How can thy pay rents when people go to the library, look at books they'd like to have and then order online, often at lower prices than the library pays? It's the same in the drug, cosmetic, sporting goods, household goods fields... Don't look to fill up tiny storefronts with businesses that 'you" would like to have on occasion, now or then. Those days are gone....

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42f25f0e-ba7c-11de-9dd7-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

    Posted Monday Oct 19, 2009 11:20 #
  6. spatny
    Member

    Here's one on retailers that have failed, and those that are making it. Looks like the only one that might fit here is the Dollar store...

    "A trip through the mall tells the story: The recession of the past two years has devastated the retail industry, as overspent consumers have put away their credit cards, started paying off years of debt and put the kibosh on shopping.

    News about retailers and the recession
    So far, the victims include bankrupt chains like Dial-a-Mattress, Filene's Basement, KB Toys, Circuit City, Mervyn's, Steve & Barry's, Linens 'n Things plus hundreds of smaller retail outlets. Vacancy rates at shopping malls have been shooting up, and 10% of malls might close, by some estimates. The pain could continue for another year or longer, as unemployment keeps rising and shoppers scrimp.
    The hammer has come down hardest on the most vulnerable retailers: those that expanded too rapidly during flush times, took on too much debt or derived too much business from a single, troubled segment of shoppers."

    Here's the link to the entire article:

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/FindHotStocks/10-retailers-rising-in-the-recession.aspx

    Posted Monday Oct 19, 2009 11:24 #
  7. EricSundstrom
    Member

    Don, here is an interesting link. Its an article about a book written by Christopher Steiner title " $20 per gallon: How the inevitable rise in the price of gasoline will change our lives for the better." Amongst other things it predicts the return of rail travel being predominant, the demise of big box retailers, and a retrenchment of populations to cities. http://www.bankrate.com/finance/personal-finance/can-20-per-gallon-gas-save-the-world.aspx

    Posted Monday Oct 19, 2009 12:56 #
  8. spatny
    Member

    That's for young guys like you, Eric. First, if we start paying the $15 or $20 that gas actually costs when you factor in the cost of the military, etc. we need to get it, places like Naperville will snap shut. Then we'd be happy to have a little bakery here, but the cost of gas and all would raise those prices... I just heard that Bernanke sees Asia coming out of it first - because, of course, they manufacture cheaper goods and sell them abroad. I saw today an article on Samsung becoming the #1 builder for large projects in the world - they're doing that huge building in Dubai now. We used to do that - remember Bechtel? At least this was designed by SOM right here in the City of Big Shoulders...

    Posted Monday Oct 19, 2009 13:20 #

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