The DOW closes over 10,000. Before you open the bubbly...
(Stock and commodity prices are soaring as speculators pour cheap US dollars into red-hot markets. Policymakers are plotting how to contain the damage.
[Related content: financial crisis, interest rates, recession, investing strategy, Federal Reserve]
By The Wall Street Journal
Concerns are mounting that efforts by governments and central banks to stoke a recovery will create a nasty side effect: asset bubbles in real-estate, stock and currency markets, especially in Asia.
Cheap money and asset bubbles
The World Bank warned on Nov. 3 that the sudden reappearance of billions of dollars in investment capital in East Asia is "raising concerns about asset price bubbles" in equity markets across Asia and in real estate in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam.
On the same day, the International Monetary Fund cited "a risk" that surging Hong Kong asset prices are being driven by a flood of capital "divorced from fundamental forces of supply and demand."
Behind the trend are measures such as cutting interest rates and pumping money into the financial system, which have left parts of the world awash in cash and at risk of bubbles, or run-ups in asset prices beyond what economic fundamentals suggest are reasonable.
Prices are surging across a host of markets. Gold, up about 44% this year, soared to a record high Nov. 3. Copper is up about 50% in the past year. In the United States, risky assets are rising rapidly in price: The risk spreads, or interest-rate premiums, on low-rated junk bonds have narrowed to about where they were in February 2008, before Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. fell, according to Barclays Capital.
Policymakers from Beijing to London, seared by the fallout from burst housing and credit bubbles, are searching for ways to head off new ones. How to handle a bubble "is one of the big two or three unanswered questions at the end of this crisis," says Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong-tae hinted last month he would raise interest rates, if necessary, to prevent Seoul's housing market from lurching out of control.
"This is the beginning of another big and excessive run-up in asset prices," said Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist.)
Posted Thursday Nov 5, 2009 15:28
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