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  1. spatny
    Member

    From the BBC today:

    World economy to 'shrink' in 2009

    Emerging economies will grow more slowly in 2009

    The global economy will shrink for the first time this year since World War II, the World Bank has said.

    The bank's forecast is gloomier than other estimates, which still foresee some growth.
    By the middle of 2009, industrial output could be as much as 15% lower than 2008, while trade may record the biggest decline in 80 years, it said.
    Developing countries face a financing shortfall of up to $700bn (£497bn) this year, the bank added.
    The sharpest trade losses will be in East Asia, it said, where there are many large exporters.
    Aid flows
    "When this crisis began, people in developing countries, especially those in Africa, were the innocent bystanders in this crisis, yet they have no choice but to bear its harsh consequences," said World Bank managing director Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

    Channelling infrastructure investment to the developing world...can have an even bigger bang for the buck and should be a key element to recovery

    The crisis will make poor countries more reliant on development assistance because, as richer countries borrow more, it will become more difficult for poorer countries to raise debt, it said.

    Only one quarter of the most vulnerable countries have the ability to finance measures to ease the impact of the downturn, said the World Bank, and its president Robert Zoellick called for investments to create jobs and "avoid social and political unrest".

    Donors are already behind by $39bn on their commitments to increase aid at the Gleneagles summit in 2005, and the World Bank voiced its concerns that aid flows will become more volatile as the economy slows.

    "Clearly, fiscal resources do have to be injected in rich countries that are at the epicentre of the crisis, " said Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank economist and senior vice president.

    "But channelling infrastructure investment to the developing world, where it can release bottlenecks to growth and quickly restore demand, can have an even bigger bang for the buck and should be a key element to recovery, " he added.

    Posted Monday Mar 9, 2009 12:00 #
  2. spatny
    Member

    Roubini - yesterday - more on Bloomberg, I think.

    Roubini says U.S. recession could last up to 36 months
    www.chinaview.cn 2009-03-10 05:31:30 Print
    Special Report: Global Financial Crisis

    NEW YORK, March 9 (Xinhua) -- Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University who predicted the current financial crisis, said Monday that the U.S. recession could drag on for years without drastic action.

    In an interview with CNBC, the professor said he saw "no hope for the recession ending in 2009 and will more than likely last into 2010."

    "We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Roubini, who is also known as "Dr. Doom." "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year."

    Roubini predicted credit crisis in 2005, saying U.S. home prices were riding a speculative wave that would sink the economy.

    The Obama Administration's 800-billion-dollar stimulus package is not enough to save the economy, Roubini said. While there will be a light at the end of the tunnel, it'll probably get worse before it gets better, he said.

    He also predicted the S&P to go to 600, and reuterated that credit losses will total $3.6 trillion - half banks, half pension funds, etc. Read it and weep.

    Posted Tuesday Mar 10, 2009 13:41 #
  3. idic5
    Member

    I heard on wbez today 848 show an interesting talk by a Richard Florida, a urban studies theorist. He likens today's crash as similar to 100-150 yrs ago when the us had the growth pains/changes of going from the country to going to the city. He gives a radical image of the landscape.

    http://www.wbez.org/Program_848.aspx?episode=32700#

    http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903/meltdown-geography

    March 2009 Atlantic
    The crash of 2008 continues to reverberate loudly nationwide—destroying jobs, bankrupting businesses, and displacing homeowners. But already, it has damaged some places much more severely than others. On the other side of the crisis, America’s economic landscape will look very different than it does today. What fate will the coming years hold for New York, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas? Will the suburbs be ineffably changed? Which cities and regions can come back strong? And which will never come back at all?

    by Richard Florida
    [strong]
    How the Crash Will Reshape America
    [/strong]

    Posted Wednesday Mar 11, 2009 01:36 #
  4. spatny
    Member

    Article in the Landmark about foreclosure sales of townhomes in Brookfield. There will be lots more of these, and perhaps some of the local developers won't be able to buy up their own properties to lease. It looks like all that junk built in Burr Ridge and out along County Line Road is just sitting - I think the supply numbers are growing even with little construction happening, which means that foreclosures and bank sales are rising. It looks like the best items to have been invested in are rare classic cars - auction prices have held up. For example:

    http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/Columns/articleId=125411

    Posted Wednesday Mar 11, 2009 10:51 #
  5. idic5
    Member

    this guy answers the question, Why It's Taking So Long To Fix the Economy by referring to

    The housing bust
    Broken banks.
    Other failing companies.
    Layoffs.
    Plunging confidence

    http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchart/2009/2/27/why-its-taking-so-long-to-fix-the-economy.html

    Why It's Taking So Long To Fix the Economy
    February 27, 2009 02:49 PM ET | Rick Newman | Permanent Link | Print

    Nobody wants to listen to Ben Bernanke - even though the Federal Reserve Chairman has been a pretty effective soothsayer.

    Last fall, he famously predicted catastrophe if the government didn’t step in to help stabilize panicky financial markets. That was on the mark: Even with more than $2 trillion worth of government intervention since then, the economy is in tatters.

    Bernanke has said we’re in a “severe” recession, which has now been borne out by the biggest decline in GDP since the punishing 1982 downturn. And now, he says that a recovery depends on whether a series of unproven government moves works or not. If we're lucky, things might start to get better by 2010.

    Posted Thursday Mar 12, 2009 15:51 #
  6. spatny
    Member

    Household wealth falls by more than five trillion in the quarter. Anybody get the message. We need to economize. Consumption is dropping like a rock - sales tax, development, are all going down, down, down.

    Record wealth loss in 2008; saving rises
    Rebecca Wilder | Mar 13, 2009
    Yesterday the Federal Reserve released the fourth quarter flow of funds report. This is a massive report with stock and flow data across all sectors of the U.S. economy, including households, businesses (financial and nonfinancial), and government. First, let's look at the headline: the household. From Bloomberg:U.S. household wealth fell by a record $5.1 trillion from October to December, almost twice the decrease in the previous quarter, as home values and stock prices plunged, Federal Reserve figures showed.Net worth for households and non-profit groups decreased to $51.5 trillion, the lowest level in four years, from $56.6 trillion in the third quarter, according to the Fed’s quarterly Flow of Funds report yesterday. Wealth dropped $11.2 trillion in 2008 from the year before, the biggest annual decline since the government began keeping quarterly records in 1952.

    The chart illustrates annual growth in net worth (quarter over quarter from year ago) since 1952, which clearly illustrates Bloomberg's record - biggest annual decline since 1952, -14.5%. It should probably be noted that Q1 (first quarter), Q2, and Q3 of 2008 also broke that same record, so wealth really posted its biggest annual decline since Q3 2008.

    Since its peak in Q2 (second quarter) of 2007, $64.4 trillion, household (and nonprofit organizations) net worth has declined 20%, or $12.9 trillion. This is massive wealth destruction, and probably the biggest catalyst to the recent surge in personal saving.

    The scatter plot relates the ratio of net-worth (wealth) to disposable income, measure of the wealth effect, and the level of personal saving since 1980. There has been a fairly strong and negative relationship between wealth and saving, suggesting that the recent destruction in household wealth has caused consumers to increase saving (i.e., reducing consumption). And furthermore, the level of saving will probably rise until equity and house prices stabilize.

    The wealth effects on consumption were strong in 2008. Clearly, there are other factors here that affect personal saving; but nevertheless, the destruction of wealth is probably a dominant force dragging down real consumption for two consecutive quarters (Q3 and Q4, see Table 8 on the personal income report).

    From RGE Monitor. Here's the link so you can see the charts referred to above.

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/255977/record_wealth_loss_in_2008_saving_rises

    There are consequences to bad fiscal policy and economic deception. We ate lunch, now we have to pay the bill. The Chinese are already warning us about securing their investment in the U.S. We will need to operate more self sufficiently.

    Posted Friday Mar 13, 2009 17:40 #
  7. idic5
    Member

    this gives a warm and fuzzy feeling...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html

    A.I.G. to Pay $100 Million in Bonuses After Huge Bailout

    Article Tools Sponsored By
    By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and PETER BAKER
    Published: March 14, 2009

    WASHINGTON — Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, the American International Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to executives in the same business unit that brought the company to the brink of collapse last year.
    ...

    Posted Saturday Mar 14, 2009 19:40 #
  8. spatny
    Member

    Make that $170 million! Get a rope! Bernanke puff-piece on 60 Minutes - will it help? Take a look at these items:

    On Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel argues that there is at least a third probability of an L-shaped global near depression rather than the mere current severe U-shaped recession. If a near depression were to take hold globally a 40% to 50% further fall in U.S. and global equities from current levels could not be ruled out. But in this L-shaped near depression the last thing one would have to worry about would be stock markets as more severe issues would have to be addressed. Check out “How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower”

    Posted Sunday Mar 15, 2009 18:20 #
  9. spatny
    Member

    Read and act accordingly, please.

    Dear MoveOn member,
    If you had to find one single group of people to blame for our economic crisis, you'd definitely have to consider the financial products division of AIG.

    They made huge, bad bets on the housing market that have cost taxpayers $170 billion...so far. That's more than $500 from every American.1

    But get this: The Washington Post just reported that these people are receiving $450 million in bonuses—and they got their first installment yesterday.2 They destroyed our economy, and now they're being rewarded for it with our bailout money!

    We can't let this stand. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Congress need to do whatever it takes to get our money back.

    Can you sign our petition today and then pass it on? We'll deliver it to Secretary Geithner and the congressional committees that supervise AIG. Clicking below will add your name:

    http://pol.moveon.org/aigbonus/o.pl?id=15739-3027261-FLxgHMx&t=3

    After you sign, please forward this to friends and family to make sure the outcry is impossible to ignore. The petition says: "Under no circumstances should the AIG executives who helped create the financial crisis receive bonuses. That's our money and you should do whatever it takes to get it back."

    The government may need to get creative to recover these bonuses, but where there's a will, there's a way. And some folks in Congress get it. Representative Barney Frank and Senator Russ Feingold are already investigating ways to get the money back.3

    Secretary Geithner already shamed AIG into reducing the bonuses they planned on paying out. But seven executives in the financial products division still received bonuses of more than $3 million each. These people wrote literally trillions of dollars in insurance contracts—those infamous credit default swaps—that they could never hope to cover. And they're getting huge bonuses for perpetrating this fraud.

    AIG's main defense is that they have to honor the contracts with these employees. But let's be clear: AIG would be bankrupt and these folks would already have been laid off if it weren't for the government's massive infusion of money. The big car companies took far less taxpayer money, and they're modifying their contracts with autoworkers. AIG should do the same with its employees.4

    Geithner and Congress need to do whatever it takes to recover that money.

    Wall Street has proven over and over that it's incapable of policing itself. So our elected representatives need to. Sign the petition below and we'll deliver it to Secretary Geithner and Congress to let them know that we're counting on them to step up. Clicking here will add your name:

    http://pol.moveon.org/aigbonus/o.pl?id=15739-3027261-FLxgHMx&t=4

    Thanks for all you do.

    Posted Monday Mar 16, 2009 11:57 #
  10. spatny
    Member

    "We created a system which people expect, that the gains are going to be privatized, and the losses are going to be socialized; this is a welfare state for the rich, for the well-connected and for Wall Street. That’s what happened, that’s public policy.” — Nouriel Roubini

    My take is simpler: The world is knee-deep in lies. It's time for the lambs to eat the lion.

    Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate Audience Blames Washington More Than Wall Street for Financial Crisis

    Nouriel Roubini | Mar 19, 2009
    On Tuesday this author participated in an Intelligence Squared debate on whether the Washington should be blamed more than Wall Street for the financial crisis. The author sided – together with Niall Ferguson and John Gordon Steele – with the view that Washington should be blamed more than Wall Street even if – as I agreed - many bankers and investors were greedy, incompetent and taking excessive risk. The audience of 700 sided with our side in a vote at the end of the debate. But maybe the fact that the debate took place in New York – with the audience having many financial market participants biased the results on our side; if the same debate had taken place in Washington probably a majority of that wonk city crowd would have blamed more Wall Street. And while I emphasized the flaws of poor regulation and supervision and easy money and credit policies I could have certainly argued for the other view as arrogance, excessive risk-taking and greed was widespread among the Masters of the Universe of Wall Street.

    The full transcript of this debate is available online at this link; the debate will also be broadcast in a few days on National Public Radio. Here is below a press release on this debate and its main themes and results followed by a brief commentary on the debate by John Fund of the WSJ:

    NEW YORK - (Business Wire) Intelligence Squared U.S., the Oxford-style debate series sponsored by The Rosenkranz Foundation, announced the results of its third debate of the Spring 2009 season, “Blame Washington more than Wall Street for the financial crisis.” Though both sides agreed that there was plenty of blame to go around, the sold-out crowd sided overwhelmingly with the proponents of the motion—a team led by “Dr. Doom,” economist Nouriel Roubini—voting 60% for the proposition, 31% against, with 9% remaining undecided.

    The evening began with a pre-debate vote that found nearly a third of the audience at The Rockefeller University’s Caspary Auditorium open to persuasion, with 40% voting for, 30% against, and 28% undecided.

    But not everyone was convinced by the outcome. Byron Wien, a former managing director at Morgan Stanley, explained the vote results to the Wall Street Journal this way: "I think Wall Street deserves by far the largest share of the blame, and I think this is a home-town crowd that's unwilling to see that.”

    Speaking for the motion were Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard University; John Steele Gordon, author of An Empire of Wealth; and Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor.

    Alex Berenson, investigative reporter for the New York Times; Jim Chanos, famed short seller and founder of Kynikos Associates; and Nell Minow, editor and co-founder of The Corporate Library spoke against the motion.

    John Donvan, correspondent for ABC News Nightline, moderated.

    A full transcript of this debate will be available at http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/Event.aspx?Event=38.

    Key comments from this debate included:

    “[Greenspan] has been a creator of serial bubbles one after the other and when people expect to be bailed out then they behave accordingly, that’s the Greenspan put. We created a system which people expect, that the gains are going to be privatized, and the losses are going to be socialized; this is a welfare state for the rich, for the well-connected and for Wall Street. That’s what happened, that’s public policy.” — Nouriel Roubini

    “Well, just because the Keystone Kops couldn’t catch the gang that couldn’t shoot straight, doesn’t absolve that gang from its guilt, in not only looting the system with material intent but materially abrogating their fiduciary responsibility to their clients and the nation.” - Jim Chanos

    “This symbiotic and indeed corrupt relationship between Wall Street and Washington is the thing that is rotten at the heart of the United States, it is the principal explanation for this crisis, and that brings me to the key question you have to ask yourselves. Who has to defend the public interest. Is it the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers, or is it your elected representatives. Ladies and gentlemen, it is perfectly clear, that it is Washington that has failed to defend the public interest, and I fear, it is continuing to fail to do so.” - Niall Ferguson

    “People on the other side have been saying that Wall Street took their checkbooks down to Washington and lobbied to get the regulation they wanted rather than stricter regulation. And actually said, therefore, Congressmen were the victims of this. I’m sorry, but Wall Street was not debauching a virgin, it was paying a harlot.” – John Steele Gordon

    To view transcripts and videos or learn more about Intelligence Squared U.S. please visit: http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org.

    Posted Saturday Mar 21, 2009 12:10 #

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